Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
